Macro Outlook
Jamaica EconomyRate held at 5.50%; MPC met 24 & 25 Jun (decision released 29 Jun); headline inflation at 5.5% (May) — above BOJ projection and fourth consecutive monthly increase; core inflation rose to 4.7% (May) from 3.9% (Jan) reflecting second-round effects from imported commodity prices; Middle East hostilities showing signs of moderating but no final resolution; crude oil prices fell 9.9% in June on optimism over US-Iran peace agreement; GDP growth projected 1.0-3.0% for FY 2026/27; unanimous decision to hold.
CPI surged 1.5% — largest monthly increase since November 2025. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages rose 1.9% driven by higher prices for agricultural produce: vegetables/tubers/pulses up 4.8% (tomatoes, cabbage, carrots) and fruits/nuts up 4.7% (ripe bananas, pineapple). Restaurants & Accommodation Services jumped 5.7% from higher prices for meals consumed away from home. Point-to-point rose sharply to 5.4% (from 4.3% in April), still within BOJ's 4-6% target but approaching upper bound.
Inflation–Policy Corridor
CPI YoY against the BOJ policy rate and 3-month T-bill yield. Shaded band is the BOJ 4–6% inflation target.
Foreign Exchange
BOJ weighted-average buying & selling rates against the Jamaican Dollar.
Reference rates only — retail buy/sell rates at cambios, banks and remittance providers will differ.
Real GDP Growth
Quarterly YoY change. Hover for STATIN context notes.
STATIN final (30 June 2026 release) — less severe than PIOJ's -5.9% preliminary. Goods Producing -7.3%; Services -3.0%. Agriculture -18.3%, Mining -23.5% on lingering Hurricane Melissa impact. Middle East tensions added external pressure.
Labour Market
Unemployment rate and labour force size by quarter.
Latest release (Jun 2026). Employment fell 25,700 YoY; participation dropped to 68.4%; Melissa fallout continued.
Sovereign Credit Profile
Latest ratings from the major agencies.
Investor Playbook
BOJ on hold cycle with inflation in target (5.4%); economy contracting (-4.1% YoY).
Real policy rate near zero (+0.1%). Carry roughly fair; no compelling duration signal.
Hold regime — favor stock selection over directional beta. Quality compounders with pricing power and dividend visibility preferred.
Limited rate cushion — JMD vulnerable to external shocks (oil, US rates, regional credit events). Hedge USD obligations.
Composite at BB- — 2.7 notches from investment grade. Continued fiscal discipline is the path to spread compression.